How Fischer Won
Congratulations to Deb Fischer and her win in the Republican primary to replace Cornhusker Kickback Ben Nelson as our Senator.
The stories out all over the place today are all ‘how did she do it?’ These stories will point to all of the traditional reasons: Joe Ricketts coming in with a last minute SuperPAC buy of advertisements, no one focusing an attack on her, and maybe even her courting of the 3rd District county chairmen. They will mention Sarah Palin a lot, but have so far ignored Herman Cain’s endorsement at the last minute. Some in the Bruning camp will be shaking their head about how could Bruning have such a lead at the start of the night, only to watch it slip away. Don Stenberg’s out of state backers are probably scratching their head, wondering how they could have fallen so far, so quickly.
Deb Fischer won by focusing on the issues.
That is the bottom line, and one which will be missed by all of the pundits running around. She did not waste time sniping at her opponents Bruning and Stenberg. Deb could not afford to do so, not with a name recognition issue from the get go. Deb, instead, came up with some specific proposals on issues Nebraskans respond to, such as immigration. While Bruning and Stenberg attacked one another, neither put forward any bold proposals while Deb put out at least two I know.
Deb also succeeded in the debates. Bruning avoided all but a couple of debates, a mistake in this day and age where Newt Gingrich stuck around for as long as he did in the presidential race due to the debates, and how badly the debates sunk Rick Perry. Bruning saw Perry’s debacles and took the wrong tactic of trying to avoid them to protect himself. This made him look elitist. That snobbish attitude, deserved or not, does not endear one to the rural Nebraska voter.
For Don Stenberg, the debates were his to lose, then proceeded to lose them. He looked awkward, and when it came to his attacks on Bruning, they were non existent during the debates except for the Twitter dustup where Stenberg squandered a perfect opportunity to nail Bruning to the wall. The fact all Stenberg touted in his ads were his backing by Jim DeMint, Freedomworks, etc. and no real proposals hurt him as well. Once again, Don became his own worst enemy, and it sunk him.
Meanwhile, as Bruning and Stenberg were making gaffes approved by Steve Schmidt and John McCain, Deb Fischer trudged along. The slow and steady, with the sudden surge at the end, was exactly how Mike Johanns won the governor primary years ago. I was on that campaign as an intern, so I know how the strategy works. Fischer played it to the letter. Johanns also wrote policy papers and posted them on his website, while his two opponents Jon Christensen and John Breslow sniped at each other. At the end of the campaign, Johanns started surging and Christensen came out with an attack that backfired. Bruning did the same thing, causing history to repeat itself.
Don’t discount Palin and Cain, either. Both groups, I knew, were sitting on the sidelines. Since I consider myself in both camps, I know many people who could not make up their minds. When both came out behind Fischer, the undecideds turned en masse to backing Fischer. Thus, the story ended with Fischer on top.
Now, election night, Bruning had a huge initial lead. So much of a lead, by the way, at least one news organization called the race for him. Even though this organization is local, they forgot demographics. Fischer’s surge happened after absentee balloting started. The reason the first returns so heavily favored Bruning was due to those absentee ballots. In Douglas County, the first count of ballots normally includes all of the absentees. I believe a few of those people wish they could have had their votes back for Tuesday, so they could vote Fischer.
Deb Fischer now moves on to take on Bob ‘What State Am I From?’ Kerrey in the general election. Deb Fischer will win, win handily, and the Republican Senate seat will be locked down. I believe this as now the actual money from the Palin organization will arrive, as will all the SuperPacs who had endorsed Stenberg will fall in behind Fischer quite readily.
Tags: deb fischer, US Senate
